Today we’re taking a look at the 2025 MLB Win Totals.
My process for these is pretty simple. I take a look at my three favorite projection systems, and compare them to the posted win totals and go from there.
Fangraphs is my favorite of the three projection systems I am using here so I weigh that a little bit higher than the other two. I like it best because it is a little more reserved than the others. The main example for this would be the Dodgers who PECTOTA and Clay Davenport have them at 103 wins. As great as they are, that is a lot of wins to project based on the parity of the league right now. Fangraphs’ 96 wins is a great number and far better than everyone else, but it’s also in line with where I think the league is at this point.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings are the other main projection system out there. These projections are a bit more aggressive in my estimation with the Rockies being a great example of that. I’m not a fan of their roster, but a projection of 107 losses is far more aggressive than I would normally be about even the worst of teams.
Clay Davenport’s Projections are the third leg of this. These are based on a combination of computerized projections for performance rates and his estimates of playing time. I find whenever he disagrees with the other two (Mariners, Guardians) that it matches my thoughts.
With all that out of the way, here is the chart of every team’s projections against their win totals. Let’s dig into it.
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 104.5 (-110)
Let’s start it off with one that makes me feel absolutely crazy.
I hinted at this above, but there is just so much parity in the league right now that I have a hard time seeing any team winning more than 100 games. Last season, the Dodgers won 98 games and had the best record in the league. In 2023, the best team in the league finished right at 104. That feels like the max and I think the less dominating teams will become the norm.
That’s not to say the Dodgers aren’t that much better than everyone else, they are, but there are plenty of red flags here. There is big talent in the rotation and that talent pretty much all his injury red flags. Ohtani will return to pitching this season which ups his injury risk on both sides of the plate.
There are also a lot of great hitters on this team who are getting older. Freddie Freeman is 35, Max Muncy is 34, and Michael Conforto, Teoscar Hernandez, and Mookie Betts are all 32. Older means more injuries, older means slowed bat speed.
Will Smith has been dealing with an ankle issue since last June. He doesn’t think it affects his swing, but then you see his 78 wRC+ in the second half of last season and you question his thinking.
I think the Dodgers are great and 100% deserve to be the World Series favorite and have the highest win total, but there are red flags here and I just don’t see them blowing this total out of the water.
New York Yankees Under 92.5 Wins (-115)
The Yankees made it to the World Series last year because of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto doesn’t play here anymore. Judge is great and I would not be surprised to see him be great again, but it would be very hard to repeat what did last year.
The rest of the offense is a big question mark to me. Paul Goldschmidt is coming off the worst season of his career when he was barely an average first baseman. The projection on him sees a bit of a bounceback, but I am not buying it out of a 37-year-old.
Cody Bellinger is the other big acquisition and I have serious doubts there. He had a dropoff of .052 in isolated slugging and .130 in OPS from 2023 to 2024. The projections split the difference between those numbers, but I have my doubts.
The projections are high on Jasson Dominguez, but that’s a case where I need to see it to believe it. He’s only 22 and a 20+ home run season feels like a lot to ask in my opinion.
Ultimately, this is a pick against the American League East and the American League as a whole. It’s going to be another bloodbath and I just don’t see a team breaking from the pack to this level.
Toronto Blue Jays Over 78.5 Wins (-140)
The 2024 Jays were an everything that can go wrong will go wrong kind of team. They had the worst bullpen in the league and that is something that you just can’t bet on to repeat. Bichette had the worst season imaginable, something I can’t imagine repeating. They were also 7-17 in September, a sign of a team that was out of it and just tried some stuff down the stretch.
Talent-wise, this time is absolutely an 80+ win team. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is one of the best hitters in the league and he’s playing for a free agent contract. I’m expecting big things this season. Anthony Santander should provide him some much-needed protection and Bichette can’t possibly be that bad again. (Right?)
Between Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement, Alejandro Kirk, and Andres Gimenez, the Jays should have one of the very best defenses in all of baseball. A rising tide lifts all boats, and this defense should help their pitching quite a bit.
The question here is the pitching and pitcher health. Max Scherzer is the big question mark, but if he is close to even his limited self that we saw last season – I think this rotation could be pretty good.
The bullpen added some names, the key one being Jeff Hoffman, and shouldn’t repeat last year. That would be hard to do even if they tried.
St. Louis Cardinals Over 75.5 Wins (-120)
Has a team ever contended against their will? That could be the case with the 2025 Cardinals.
This team tried to trade Arenado all offseason, but couldn’t get it done and now they have what looks to be a pretty good lineup if things break right.
Willson Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first base is a clear upgrade and I think he’ll put up some great numbers this year. He had a shortened season last year but posted a 140 wRC+ in 84 games. Ivan Herrara had a great season last year with a 127 wRC+ in 72 games and should be the primary catcher. Losing Goldy should upgrade two positions.
Gorman, Nootbaar, Burleson, and Winn are all solid contributors. Jordan Walker is a question mark, but I like a lot more of this lineup than I don’t.
Last year’s Cardinals won 83 games so the stepback doesn’t make as much sense to me. There were a lot of plate appearances that went to bad players last season and I don’t see that fully repeating here.
The pitching is the question mark, but there is enough mix of veterans and prospects here that I can see them finishing more towards the middle of the league than the bottom. That should be enough.
Barring a fire sale, this team should win 76+ whether they want to or not.
Chicago White Sox Over 54.5 Wins (-115)
We started with a bet that makes me feel insane and now we end with another.
The White Sox were awful last year, but they were also incredibly unlucky. They won only 41 games, but their Pythagorean record says they should have won 48. BaseRuns, another metric that figures out how many runs a team “should have” scored, says they should have won 50.
I think the offense has some potential to be decent, or at least average. Colson Montgomery is a top prospect and should make the team this year. Miguel Vargas will get every chance to hit here. Mike Tauchman, Austin Slater, and Joey Gallo should all help raise the floor and I just don’t see a way this team hits as poorly as it did last year.
Last year’s defense was also the worst and, again, hard to repeat something like that. The players they’ve added have flaws, but they know how a glove works. That’s more than we could say last year.
I am not betting on the White Sox to be good, but I don’t think we’re going to see historic levels of bad again. 55-107 would win this bet.
Other teams receiving consideration:
- The Red Sox 84.5 win under looks good on the chart at -3.5, but that’s because PECOTA is far lower on them than anyone else. I can’t say I see why. The rotation should be improved and the offense should be one of the best in baseball. This team has the prospect depth to add a big arm if that becomes available. I have them closer to an over than an under, despite the chart.
- Astros Under 86.5 would be my gut call. I am closest to Fangraphs on them as I don’t think all the moves they made this offseason will be for the better. Losing Bregman and especially Tucker is going to hurt more than they imagined, and I don’t think the pitching will be as strong as last year to bail them out.
- The Orioles Under 88.5 is a bet more tempting than the Red Sox. The starting pitching was the weakness last season and it did not improve this offseason. I can see a leap from Grayson Rodriguez which would help a lot, but I still think this team did not do enough this offseason. They do not need more outfielders, I don’t know why they keep signing them. Still, this offense is so good that I can’t justify going against them.
- The Royals, Tigers, and Guardians are all about the same to me. They all look like unders on paper, but you just know one or two of them is going to exceed expectations like they did last season. The Royals are my favorite to repeat, mostly because of Witt Jr., but I won’t be surprised by any of them going over.
- The Reds are an under on paper, but they are a team I have my eye on. Last year was a mess of injuries and all of those guys are coming back now. There are a lot of guys who could really blow their projections away like McClain and Marte. Managers don’t matter much in the grand scheme of things, but if there was ever one that did his name would be Terry Francona.
