Welcome to Sharp Baseball.
My name is Vince, and I have been betting on baseball for most of my life. Seriously, I’ve known the difference between a run line and a moneyline since before I hit puberty. Baseball is a stats-based game more than any other, and looking through them and trying to figure them out has been a hobby of mine since the beginning. From Baseball Weekly back in the day to Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs now. With my stats obsession and early introduction to betting on baseball, I’ve always had ideas about what it takes to win, and a couple of years ago, I set out to take my ideas and put them into a proper MLB system.
I built my first system very simply, comparing pitching stats to offensive stats to see who was better. That had a little success, but there is just so much that goes into any given game that I needed to keep tweaking it… and tweaking it, and tweaking it.
By Version 5.0, everything had changed. Year-to-date hitting and pitching stats turned into something much bigger. Now, I was accounting for year-to-date stats, projection system numbers, last ten and thirty game splits, weather, home/road splits, ballparks, and everything else. If there is some type of split or advantage to be found, I want it in my System. In 2024, I had my best season ever with a 305-223 record, which was good for +24.41 betting units.
For all of 2024, I was posting my tips nearly every day at a sports betting Patreon I shared with a friend. Due to a variety of factors, we decided to close that Patreon down. For myself, a big part of it was a lack of passion for anything but baseball. It’s always been my favorite sport and the one I felt I understood the best, and now I was feeling it on a whole new level. I couldn’t bring the same energy to the other sports when the season ended. The Patreon was done, but I wasn’t done with baseball.
This brings us to Sharp Baseball.
Sharp Baseball is me taking what I’ve learned from doing my old Patreon, tweaking the System once again, and taking on the 2025 season.
I will once again be posting tips nearly every day, but this time, I will be on the Sharp Baseball Patreon. Last season, including the playoffs, I posted bets for 181 days of the season with over 600 bets.
In addition to my usual daily selection of moneyline, run line, and over/under bets, I will also be continuing to post player props.
Last season, I attempted to take what the system does for game outcomes and apply it on an individual level for players with mixed results. I chased home runs early in the season, which was a misreading on my part, and I had much more success when I made the switch to total bases. There are specific tweaks coming to the system that are meant to improve the results here.
I also plan to have a fantasy element to Sharp Baseball. I play fantasy almost every day of the MLB season, and it is by far my most successful sport. I have received a W2 from DraftKings in each of the past two seasons, despite never playing more than two lineups per contest. The System has definitely helped with my success, and I hope to share in it.
Sometimes, I’ll just write about baseball. You don’t spend this much time monitoring games and looking at stats and not have some opinions about what’s going on in the league.
I look at baseball in a similar way to poker. There is plenty of risk involved, but it is also a skill game. The information is out there. Bad beats can happen, of course, and if someone is not careful, they can lose a lot of money, but the numbers rarely lie. We just have to figure out how to read them.
My goal here is to win, but it’s also for full transparency. I’m not a snake oil salesman, I’m here to learn things about the game and always get better. That’s what Sharp Baseball is all about.
The cost of the Patreon is $10 per month, and it will run from March to October. There will be one free post per week. Everything else will be subscriber-only.
Last season, I averaged about 25 posts per month, which comes out to 40 cents per post. By bets, we’re looking at less than ten cents per tip. I think that is more than fair for the amount of work I put into the System and writing.